Or at least, 5 reasons there seems to be a somewhat strong argument to be made that we might not have a recession in the next year based on what LPL Financial calls the Recession Watch Dashboard. This tool uses 5 indicators that, when considered collectively, have had a strong history of forecasting economic downturns.
You can follow this link to see the full report (RecessionWatch), but I’ll provide a brief summary of the main points. Based on the Five Forecasters listed below, LPL states in the report, “Our Recession Watch Dashboard is showing an overall low risk of recession starting within the next year.” If you take a look around Bend, OR you will likely come to the same conclusion! LPL believes these forecasters provide a comprehensive view of the odds of a recession starting within the next year. If they are correct, as they have often been in the past, continuing to maintain some exposure to growth oriented securities might make a lot of sense right now.
The following are the Five Forecasters:
- Leading Economic Indicators
- Market Breadth
- Purchasing Managers’ Sentiment (PMI)
- Treasury Yield Curve
- Market Valuation
Sources: LPL Research, Federal Reserve, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Standard and Poor’s, Robert Shiller, National Bureau of Economic Research, Haver Analytics, Thomson Reuters 08/15/16
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide or be construed as providing specific investment advice or recommendations for your clients. Any economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. All indexes are un-managed and cannot be invested into directly.
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