Mid-Year Economic Outlook

The bullets below are a summary of LPL Financial’s Mid-Year Outlook for the economy and the markets. Although we’ve had many ups and downs already this year, their projections are still tracking. The outlook they present in this publication is similar to many other investment firms and analysts. That is one of the problems with “projections”, nobody likes to stick their necks out too far because the risk to their reputations is too important . . . Which is just another reason to keep to a long-range plan and not tinker much with it!

If you are interested in getting more detail, the full Market Outlook from LPL is posted on our website under the Resources tab. LPL Midyear Outlook

LPL Mid-Year Outlook 2016 image

  • Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes. We have reduced our forecast for Fed rate hikes in 2016 from two to one, with additional rate increases next year.
  • International opportunities. We remain cautious in our global outlook, but continue to look for opportunities, especially in emerging markets.
  • Corporate America investments. A pickup in economic growth and an energy sector turnaround may boost companies’ investments in their future growth.
  • Second half turnarounds: oil, dollar, earnings. Should the drags of oil prices and the U.S. dollar ease, as we expect, an earnings rebound may occur in the second half of the year.

By the way, “Sell in May then go away”, looks to be on track towards failing again as an investment strategy for the 8th time in 11 years!